How Pro Money is Betting KU-Arkansas
How Pro Money is Betting KU-Arkansas
There is clear pro action in the Liberty Bowl
I AM NOT RECOMMENDING ANY BETTING OR WAGERS. THESE ARE MY INTERPRETATIONS OF TRENDS I FIND INTERESTING. I CAN'T GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY OF THIS CONTENT OR MY INTERPRETATION OF IT. THIS IS NOT BETTING ADVICE. IF YOU CHOOSE TO PLACE ANY BETS, YOU DO SO AT YOUR OWN RISK.
Before The Bets
Some informed boots on the ground in Memphis wrote me this week.
"Everyone around here talking about a high-scoring game with some of the key defenders Arkansas is missing and how well they run the ball"
Along with the action mentioned below, I’ll be watching for Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson passing yards and rushing yards numbers. They aren’t posted on DraftKings or FanDuel yet. He’s a stud and should have a big day.
The Bets
Quickly, "Pro Bettors" or "Sharp Money" are respected bettors. When they bet, oddsmakers might change lines based on their wager. However, even these "Pros" are only right ~55% of the time. The margins are THAT slim.
To keep it simple, I look for two things when analyzing betting markets:
1. Differences between the % of bets and % of money. The public should be a lot of little bets, while the “Pros” typically represent more of the money. In theory, the "Pros" are just SLIGHTLY more likely to be right.
2. How odds are moving, as mentioned above, can come from Sharp Money bets. TODAY: Arkansas Feral Pigs vs. Kansas Jayhawks
Opening spread: Arkansas favored by 4.5 points over Kansas
Current spread: Arkansas favored by 2.5 points over Kansas (as of 12:18pm CT)
Opening Point Total: 67.5 total points scored
Current Point Total: 70 total points scored (as of 12:07pm CT)
DraftKings is reporting 41% of bettors and 62% of money wagered is on Kansas to cover the spread. It also shows 44% of bettors and 57% of the money is on the over.
Action Network is reporting 62% of bettors and 82% of money wagered is on Kansas to cover the spread. It also shows 47% of bettors and 60% of the money is on the over.
My Take:
This one is clear. Kansas and the over are getting sharp money.
The game opened around 4.5 points and immediately dropped to 3 before settling at 2.5. It's not a landslide, but it's enough to say there's "Pro" action on the Jayhawks.
I asked Director of Bleacher Report Betting Sam Richmond1 for his thoughts. He's planning on taking Kansas.
"This might be the most motivated a team has ever been for a Liberty Bowl in history. Gotta ride."
In other words: Never bet against LaGerald Vick’s mom.
He’s only a colleague and definitely not a friend