The Key for Kansas against Oklahoma State

And how Pro Money is betting today's game

I AM NOT RECOMMENDING ANY BETTING OR WAGERS. THESE ARE MY INTERPRETATIONS OF TRENDS I FIND INTERESTING. I CAN'T GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY OF THIS CONTENT OR MY INTERPRETATION OF IT. THIS IS NOT BETTING ADVICE. IF YOU CHOOSE TO PLACE ANY BETS, YOU DO SO AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Game HEARING

First of all, Happy New Year and Happy Big 12 Season. THANK YOU for being here with me and other KU fans. I expect to drop a fun HEARING tomorrow. Be safe tonight so you can read it!

My source’s take on this game was Oklahoma State has good athletes, but not much else. The source says KU’s edge — and the key — will be its ability to force turnovers.

The Bets

Quickly, "Pro Bettors" or "Sharp Money" are respected bettors. When they bet, oddsmakers might change lines based on their wager. However, even these "Pros" are only right ~55% of the time. The margins are THAT slim.

To keep it simple, I look for two things when analyzing betting markets: 

1. Differences between the % of bets and % of money. The public should be a lot of little bets, while the “Pros” typically represent more of the money. In theory, the "Pros" are just SLIGHTLY more likely to be right.

2. How odds are moving, as mentioned above, can come from Sharp Money bets. 

TODAY: Oklahoma State Little Pokes @ Kansas

Opening spread: KU favored by 9.5 points

Current spread: KU favored by 10.5 points (some books offering 10 still — as of 12:36pm CT)

DraftKings is reporting 82% of bettors and 63% of money wagered is on Kansas to cover the spread. (via VSiN)

Action Network is reporting 71% of bettors and 73% of money wagered is on Kansas to cover the spread. It also indicates “Pro Money” is on the Jayhawks. The sample size is small here.

My Take:

The markets aren’t showing much today. To me, the biggest indicator of “Pro” betting is the line moving in KU’s favor. In other words, there MAY be some slight pro betting on the Jayhawks.