The Source: KU's Plan to Slow Down Oscar Tshiebwe

How the Indiana game may dictate KU's plan today

I AM NOT RECOMMENDING ANY BETTING OR WAGERS. THESE ARE MY INTERPRETATIONS OF TRENDS I FIND INTERESTING. I CAN'T GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY OF THIS CONTENT OR MY INTERPRETATION OF IT. THIS IS NOT BETTING ADVICE. IF YOU CHOOSE TO PLACE ANY BETS, YOU DO SO AT YOUR OWN RISK.

The Source is feeling good vibes around KU right now. Today’s game vs. Kentucky is obviously a difficult matchup that seems problematic at first glance. Here’s how The Source expects KU to defend Oscar Tshiebwe:

• To start, the Jayhawks will double-team and trap Tshiebwe as much as possible. The Source believes KU will try to make someone else beat them.

• The Indiana game may be a useful recipe for the Jayhawks. KU doubled Trayce Jackson-Davis and held him to 13 points and six boards. Right now, IU’s big man is putting up huge B1G numbers.

• While KU may not have size, it does have speed. The Jayhawks will try to use that against Tshiebwe and Kentucky.

My view is that you’ve got to try and keep Tshiebwe around the free-throw line. If he gets angles on the low block, the you’re toast. Watch to see if KU can force him toward the upper-middle part of the paint.

I’d also keep an eye on Zach Clemence. He provides an interesting chance to bring Tshiebwe out of the paint. IF he’s in the game, he needs to be ready to shoot threes. He’s not in there for physicality.

The Bets

TODAY: Kansas Jayhawks AT Kentucky Second Winningest Wildcats

Opening spread: Kansas a 1.5-point favorite.

Current spread: KU a 2.5-point underdog (as of 5:11pm CT)

DraftKings is reporting 64% of bettors and 59% of money wagered is on Kansas to cover the spread. (via VSiN)

Action Network is reporting 45% of bettors and 54% of money wagered is on Kansas to cover the spread. It also indicates “Pro Money” is on Kentucky.

My Take:

The biggest thing I see is the early line movement in Kentucky’s favor. The Wildcats were home underdogs to a team that lost three straight… yeah, money was going to come in quick on UK.

Since the opening movement, I haven’t seen much of a shift. The current number feels about right. KU hasn’t covered one spread in its last five games. I think (and hope) KU is due for some positive breaks.