Betting Breakdown: Can Cold Make a Difference for KU-Harvard?

This may be the dumbest thing I've ever written

I AM NOT RECOMMENDING ANY BETTING OR WAGERS. THESE ARE MY INTERPRETATIONS OF TRENDS I FIND INTERESTING. I CAN'T GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY OF THIS CONTENT OR MY INTERPRETATION OF IT. THIS IS NOT BETTING ADVICE. IF YOU CHOOSE TO PLACE ANY BETS, YOU DO SO AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Can Cold Make a Difference?

First off, I want to acknowledge this concept is completely absurd. The sample size is far too small for any concrete conclusions. But it's still a fun thing to look at.

The question: Can cold weather have any impact inside at Allen Fieldhouse? If so, could we use that as a betting edge?

This theory is so stupid that instead of spending time on real research, I took suggestions from Twitter to find bad winter weather games (plus some half-assed research). Thank you for the help. To keep things somewhat consistent, I'm looking at home games. No Sprint Center or road action. Also, games before 2005 have less historical betting data to examine.

In the 12 bad winter weather games I found:

• KU went 4-8 against the spread

• The under went 7-4-1

• KU lost 25% of the games outright, a big difference from its usual home winning percentage.

It looks like KU is a bit worse at home when there's bad winter weather outside. Maybe these cold weather games simply came when the team was a bit worse. Most these games game during winter break, so maybe that matters more than outside temperature. Or, the hypotheses is correct — we’re all geniuses¹ — and the energy is off when KU plays in shit weather.

This is so far from conclusive I beg you to ignore it for betting purposes.

The Bets

Quickly, "Pro Bettors" or "Sharp Money" are respected bettors. When they bet, oddsmakers might change lines based on their wager. However, even these "Pros" are only right ~55% of the time. The margins are THAT slim.

To keep it simple, I look for two things when analyzing betting markets: 

1. Differences between the % of bets and % of money. The public should be a lot of little bets, while the “Pros” typically represent more of the money. In theory, the "Pros" are just SLIGHTLY more likely to be right.

2. How odds are moving, as mentioned above, can come from Sharp Money bets. 

TODAY: Harvard Nerds @ Kansas.

Opening spread: KU favored by 21.5 points

Current spread: NO CHANGE (as of 2:39pm CT)

DraftKings is reporting 81% of bettors and 76% of money wagered is on Kansas to cover the spread. This is likely much larger sample size than Action Network. (via VSiN)

Action Network is reporting 74% of bettors and 84% of money wagered is on Kansas to cover the spread. The sample size is small here. (Action gets data from different books than DraftKings).

One thing to note: Harvard games haven’t gone OVER the total once in its last five. KU games have gone OVER in four of its last five. Fun clash of trends there.

My Take:

There is nothing here that indicates any kind of edge from the Pro Market vs. Public Market. But it’s definitely gonna be cold outside. If you’re betting this one: may God have mercy on your soul.

1. You’re with me now