💰Here We Go: Big 12 to 'Aggressively Pursue Expansion'
💰Here We Go: Big 12 to 'Aggressively Pursue Expansion'
What KU fans should know as the Big 12 looks to backfill Texas and Oklahoma
EVERYTHING IN THIS NEWSLETTER IS BASED UPON WHAT I AM HEARING FROM PEOPLE I TRUST. PLEASE DO NOT MISTAKE THIS FOR FACT OR FOR ACTUAL JOURNALISM, WHICH HAS VERIFICATION STANDARDS THAT I HAVE NOT ADHERED TO. I DO NOT GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY OF THE CONTENT.
In this Hearings newsletter:
The latest on conference realignment
Q&A and who the Big 12 could look to add
My take on KU’s position
The latest on conference realignment
Thursday was as chaotic as they come in college sports. Here's a quick summary of what went down and where we stand on Friday afternoon.
Texas and Oklahoma will leave the Big 12 after this coming 2023-2024 football season.
The schools will pay a combined $100M to the conference (Sports Illustrated). The early-exit agreement is a reduction from the $160M the schools were obligated to owe if they left before 2025.
The exit agreement comes on the heels of a scathing Athletic report saying Pac-12 schools are "getting antsy" due to its media rights negotiations going poorly.
The Big 12 is now set to "aggressively pursue" expansion, via Sports Illustrated's Ross Dellenger.
Even further, the Big 12 is open to adding teams to increase college basketball value (CBS).
This is unique in the college landscape right now. College basketball is a streaming play. Each team plays roughly ~2.7x the number of games as college football teams. Increasing high-quality streaming inventory seems to be an option the Big 12 is exploring.
So, we have a Big 12 conference ready to expand, and a group of Pac-12 schools displeased with their TV negotiations.
Three Likely Questions
Q: Why did the Big 12 let Texas and Oklahoma leave early without paying the full $160M?
A: There are three different scenarios that make sense to me. These aren’t mutually exclusive, either.
If you know Texas and Oklahoma are leaving in a year, some payment is better than zero payment. Take what you can get.
FOX gets additional games in return from ESPN, so the TV networks are steering this.
You only let Texas and Oklahoma leave if you believe you can add value through expansion. We know the Big 12 is going to try. What does commissioner Brett Yormark know?
Q: Who would the Big 12 even add?
A: The conference is making a play to pick off an unhappy Pac-12 school, or two, or four. This will be challenging to pull off. Pac-12 schools prefer to stick together unless things really fall apart here over the next month or so.
If an ACC school tries to break free from its TV deal, which may happen, it won't be to leave for the Big 12.
This brings me to basketball and the CBS report about the conference being open to hoops-driven expansion. Gonzaga appears to be on the table, which has been reported. I'm also keeping my eye on the Big East, and maybe a UConn-type of school that wants to salvage its football program while boosting its hoops profile. There is a mutual benefit here, with UConn delivering additional east coast and NYC TV markets.
Q: Does that mean KU's hope to go to the B1G is dead?
A: Ultimately, Kansas covets the B1G and that won't change. The only short-term scenario where I see KU landing in the B1G is if an ACC school breaks free and creates chaos. Otherwise, keep building a football program and the rest will take care of itself over time.
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My take on KU’s position
I'm not sure we Kansas fans are better off in the B1G. At the very least, staying in the Big 12 no longer appears to be the end of the world. I get why KU officials would want to make a move.
Still, I keep coming back to my priorities as a fan: winning, entertainment, community, and prestige.
By staying in the Big 12, KU should win more football games. That's it. And based on this previous season, it's fun to win football games! As long as the Big 12 keeps its College Football Playoff bid, then this scenario is OK.
However, there are substantial benefits to hypothetically joining the B1G. There are major financial gains, a more robust academic footprint, and long-term stability for athletics. These are major things.
But I wonder, as a fan, how much I'll notice KU getting an extra $30M as an athletic department. I don't have to wonder how much I'll enjoy winning more football games. For now, let’s just keep doing that.
Why do you think we will win more games in the Big 12, I like my chances against everyone in Big 10 west and some in the east too, I think outside of OSU and Michigan Big 12 is a better football conference. The only benefit I see to staying in the Big 12 is keeping a foothold in Texas for recruiting. I also thought the Big 10 was getting $50-70 million more a year than the Big 12, we'll need that money to keep our staffs intact and hopefully add sports.
If memory serves, we're now, by a decent margin, the biggest revenue for new Big XII. The conference is exploiting us by virtue of these basketball moves.
We need to get where we belong now, B1G. Not just for athletics, but for academics as well.