I AM NOT RECOMMENDING ANY BETTING OR WAGERS. THESE ARE MY INTERPRETATIONS OF TRENDS I FIND INTERESTING. I CAN'T GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY OF THIS CONTENT OR MY INTERPRETATION OF IT. THIS IS NOT BETTING ADVICE. IF YOU CHOOSE TO PLACE ANY BETS, YOU DO SO AT YOUR OWN RISK.
Game HEARING
Indiana has one of the best offensive bigs in the country in Trayce Jackson-Davis. Dude scores efficiently and collects offensive rebounds like K-Staters and crop-judging medals.
I asked the same source (who nailed the Missouri game) how KU will stop this guy. The source feels KU will double Jackson-Davis, taking the ball out of his hands. Once Kansas doubles, it’ll need to recover quickly and contest threes. In particular, Miller Kopp is a 49% three-point shooter to look out for.
Keys for KU to win:
Double the big man.
Make shooters uncomfortable.
Rebound.
The Bets
Quickly, "Pro Bettors" or "Sharp Money" are respected bettors. When they bet, oddsmakers might change lines based on their wager. However, even these "Pros" are only right ~55% of the time. The margins are THAT slim.
To keep it simple, I look for two things when analyzing betting markets:
1. Differences between the % of bets and % of money. The public should be a lot of little bets, while the “Pros” typically represent more of the money. In theory, the "Pros" are just SLIGHTLY more likely to be right.
2. How odds are moving, as mentioned above, can come from Sharp Money bets. TODAY: Indiana @ Kansas. (hell yeah)
Opening spread: KU favored by 5.5 points
Current spread: NO CHANGE (as of 10:11am CT)
DraftKings is reporting 70% of bettors and 66% of money wagered is on Kansas to cover the spread. (via VSiN)
Action Network is reporting 67% of bettors and 69% of money wagered is on Kansas to cover the spread. It also specifically indicates “Pro Money” is on Indiana. The sample size is pretty small here. (Action gets data from different books than DraftKings).
My Take:
There is MAYBE some “Pro Money” on Indiana to cover, but nothing significant enough to be a clear “Pros vs. the Public” kind of game. In other words, there’s a slight Indiana lean, but the markets aren’t showing much today.