Betting Market Breakdown: KU-Mizzou
Betting Market Breakdown: KU-Mizzou
What do pro bettors know anyway?
I AM NOT RECOMMENDING ANY BETTING OR WAGERS. THESE ARE MY INTERPRETATIONS OF TRENDS I FIND INTERESTING. I CAN'T GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY OF THIS CONTENT OR MY INTERPRETATION OF IT. THIS IS NOT BETTING ADVICE. IF YOU CHOOSE TO PLACE ANY BETS, YOU DO SO AT YOUR OWN RISK.
Maybe someone can leave a little meth outside Mizzou Arena, and no one will make it inside. But, if not, this one is gonna be pretty rowdy.
Before I get into the betting market, one source did say they were underwhelmed with Missouri on film: “KU can get a wide open shot on every possession (if it can play poised).”
But playing poised in your first true road game at your rival’s building for the first time in a decade may be difficult.
The Bets
Quickly, "Pro Bettors" or "Sharp Money" are respected bettors. When they bet, oddsmakers might change lines based on their wager. However, even these "Pros" are only right ~55% of the time. The margins are THAT slim.
To keep it simple, I look for two things when analyzing betting markets:
1. Differences between the % of bets and % of money. In theory, the public will be a lot of little bets, while the “Pros” typically represent the money.
2. How odds are moving, as mentioned above, can come from Sharp Money bets. TODAY: Kansas @ Missouri.
Opening spread: KU favored by 3.5 points
Current spread: KU favored by 3 points (as of 11:47am CT)
DraftKings is reporting 91% of bettors and 86% of money wagered is on Kansas to cover the spread. (via VSiN)
Action Network is reporting 61% of bettors and 43% of money wagered is on Kansas to cover the spread. It also specifically indicates “Pro Money” is on Missouri. (Action gets data from different books than DraftKings).
My Take:
It’s important to note Kansas is a legal betting state while Missouri is not. That could explain lopsided numbers in a game without much betting volume.
Still, both sites listed are showing bigger bets coming in on Missouri. It’s also interesting the line hasn’t moved up to -4 with a majority of bettors taking Kansas. This tends to indicate some “Pro Bettors” are taking the Tigers.
F*ck ‘em.
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