It's a Trap! The Source and Pros Bettors Agree
It's a Trap! The Source and Pros Bettors Agree
The Source is back and hopes the Jayhawks don't get caught off guard today
I AM NOT RECOMMENDING ANY BETTING OR WAGERS. THESE ARE MY INTERPRETATIONS OF TRENDS I FIND INTERESTING. I CAN'T GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY OF THIS CONTENT OR MY INTERPRETATION OF IT. THIS IS NOT BETTING ADVICE. IF YOU CHOOSE TO PLACE ANY BETS, YOU DO SO AT YOUR OWN RISK.
Game HEARING
All Hail The Source. Once AGAIN, The Source nailed its game thoughts ahead of KU’s game against Texas Tech. It’s almost like The Source knows something…😏
The Source is back, but this time he’s worried about the Jayhawks. Here’s why:
This is a must win for West Virginia, while Kansas has two home games to look forward to next week.
The Jayhawks CANNOT get sped up on the road. It’ll cost them. KU can’t show up complacent and must be ready to go from the start.
WVU has tough guards who will challenge the Jayhawks on the perimeter.
WVU bigs will fight for position down low and then seal off in the post, creating an open lane for those tough guards.
The Mountaineers also have a good shooter in Erik Stevenson, who won’t be afraid of the moment. He’s been T’d up in two Big 12 games already, including one after a made three against Oklahoma State that kinda cost WVU the game. KU needs to make him uncomfortable.
Once again, The Source thinks the Jayhawks will need their big wings to rebound. WVU has a + rebounding advantage this year. He also says to watch out for WVU guards cherry-picking for transition buckets if their bigs rebound well.
The Source’s summary: don’t get sped up, rebound, and contest the three-ball.
The one caveat from The Source: Big 12 officials sent a memo saying they’ll cut down on physical play. I guess that means they’ll call more fouls. The Source isn’t sure how that will manifest itself today.
In summary: We love The Source. The Source loves Kansas, but not necessarily today… and it seems like Pro Bettors agree.
The Bets
Quickly, "Pro Bettors" or "Sharp Money" are respected bettors. When they bet, oddsmakers might change lines based on their wager. However, even these "Pros" are only right ~55% of the time. The margins are THAT slim.
To keep it simple, I look for two things when analyzing betting markets:
1. Differences between the % of bets and % of money. The public should be a lot of little bets, while the “Pros” typically represent more of the money. In theory, the "Pros" are just SLIGHTLY more likely to be right.
2. How odds are moving, as mentioned above, can come from Sharp Money bets. TODAY: Kansas @ Shouldn’t Be In The Big 12 West Virginia
Opening spread: KU favored by 2.5 points
Current spread: KU favored by 1.5 points (as of 4:14pm CT)
DraftKings is reporting 77% of bettors and 54% of money wagered is on Kansas to cover the spread. (via VSiN)
Action Network is reporting 55% of bettors and 31% of money wagered is on Kansas to cover the spread. It also indicates “Pro Money” is on West Virginia. The sample size is small.
My Take:
The Pros like West Virginia, The Source is unusually concerned about Kansas, and the betting line is weird. Usually when I see a “fishy” line like this, I’d either bet WVU or stay away.
There’s some action on the over, it appears. Still, I’m unsure what to expect with officiating today after that memo.
Good luck and Long Live The Source.