KU-Howard 💰 Quick Stats and the Betting Market
KU-Howard 💰 Quick Stats and the Betting Market
Let's do this thing
I AM NOT RECOMMENDING ANY BETTING OR WAGERS. THESE ARE MY INTERPRETATIONS OF TRENDS I FIND INTERESTING. I CAN'T GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY OF THIS CONTENT OR MY INTERPRETATION OF IT. THIS IS NOT BETTING ADVICE. IF YOU CHOOSE TO PLACE ANY BETS, YOU DO SO AT YOUR OWN RISK.
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In This Newsletter
Quick stats on Howard 🫡
Betting markets and my take 💰
Bonus: other bets I’m eyeing
The Source and Some Quick Stats on Howard🫡
Before we get into the bets, I asked The Source what he knew about Howard. His response, “Not much.” He added two details KU fans may not love “They shoot a lot of threes and they’re big. A lot of threes.”
Some quick notes on Howard:
Howard poses a unique size challenge for a 16-seed with two starters over 6’9” and an ability to go either big or small.
The Bison rely on PG Elijah Hawkins, a FAST guard who likes to kick it to shooters. Hawkins is good, but he has to go against Dajuan Harris, who can neutralize the threat.
Howard ranks 32nd in 3-point % on Kenpom, which is a solid number. When you look a little closer (and combine it with Synergy stats), you can see why they shot so well this season.
The Bison are the 3rd best team in the country at creating “unguarded jump shots.” More than 60% of their possessions end with an open jumper. To their credit, they also do a good job of making the open shots and rank No. 25 in the country in converting the looks.
The story changes considerably when Howard takes a guarded jumper. It ranks No. 248 in the country in converting contested jump shots.
No one wants to see this, but Howard ranks No. 25 at making “long threes,” whether guarded or unguarded.
TL;DR: GET A HAND UP. CONTEST JUMPERS.
One other interesting note is around rebounding. Howard ranks No. 28 on Kenpom at offensive rebounding %, but No. 309 in defensive rebounding %.
If KU can rebound well, there should be transition opportunities with Howard crashing the glass.
Betting Market Breakdown
TODAY: Kansas vs. Howard. Round 1.
Opening spread: Kansas favored by 22.5 points
Current spread: Kansas favored by 22 points (as of 10:33PM CT)
DraftKings is reporting 82% of bettors and 80% of money wagered is on Kansas to cover the spread. (via VSiN)
Action Network is reporting 69% of bettors and 69%1 of money wagered is on Kansas to cover the spread.
My Take:
I will wait to bet this game live, if at all. Without Bill Self, I can’t bring myself to take KU with such a large number. The Jayhawks should still breeze through it, but I don’t want to mess with such an unknown.
The betting splits are dead even, indicating no significant Pro Money on either side. I’m starting to see some books moving the spread to 21.5, which could indicate SOME late sharp action on Howard, but there’s nothing major here.
One trend worth noting: KU has covered its last five Round 1 games as a No. 1 or No. 2 seed.
Some Lines I May or May Not Take
Do not tail me. Just what I’m eyeing. You are an adult who makes your own decisions!
WVU -2
Furman +5.5
Colgate +14 (maybe ML sprinky dinky for fun)
Penn State +3
Oral Roberts +7
Mich St. -1
Kennesaw St. +11.5
Memphis -2.5
MONTANA ST. +9 VS. KSTATE (Gotta do it)
!!!!!!!!