KU-TCU 🔑 Pro Money is Split, and The Source has a key

Why it's all about Dajuan Harris today vs. TCU

I AM NOT RECOMMENDING ANY BETTING OR WAGERS. THESE ARE MY INTERPRETATIONS OF TRENDS I FIND INTERESTING. I CAN'T GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY OF THIS CONTENT OR MY INTERPRETATION OF IT. THIS IS NOT BETTING ADVICE. IF YOU CHOOSE TO PLACE ANY BETS, YOU DO SO AT YOUR OWN RISK.

In This Newsletter

1. The key to TCU game today and a quick hearing

2. A stat showing how Bill Self dominates these spots

3. Betting markets and my take

---

Before The Bets

The Source has two keys for KU vs. TCU today: Dajuan Harris and limiting transition opportunities.

• When healthy, TCU’s guards are big, strong, and athletic. We’ve established this is the worst kind of matchup for Kansas.

• In the first game, Harris was 0-4. He couldn’t get in the lane, looked uncomfortable, and the entire offense struggled as a result.

• Look at Harris’ shot chart from the first TCU game. He was struggling to get downhill. One of the two misses near the basket came on a fast break. The other was a contested layup.

Blue = Miss | Red = Make

• TCU has more “transition possessions” than any Power 5 team in the country, per Synergy. Meanwhile, KU’s transition defense grades out as “excellent.”

• KU’s best bet to keep TCU from running is by taking care of the ball. The Jayhawks had 19 turnovers in the first meeting.

• The less obvious way to keep TCU from running is by generating high-percentage shots… which leads back to Harris and his aggressiveness.

One quick hearing is that the team wasn’t going crazy celebrating after the Baylor beatdown. The guys were happy but focused on what was ahead of them. You love to hear this.

---

Stat of The Day

Bill Self is 58-42-3 against the spread in a revenge spot like this, according to Action Network (since 2006).

---

The Bets

TODAY: Kansas Jayhawks vs. TCU F*ck They’re Healthy Now Horned Frogs

• Opening spread: Kansas a 1-point underdog.

• Current spread: Kansas a 2-point underdog (As of 3:40pm CT)

  • DraftKings is reporting 57% of bettors and 50% of money wagered is on Kansas to cover the spread. (via VSiN)

  • Action Network is reporting 47% of bettors and 22% of money wagered is on Kansas to cover the spread.

My Take:

Pro Money has come in on both sides of this line. Some pros hit TCU when the line opened, and then others took KU when the line ticked up to TCU-2.5.

I don’t want to take the Jayhawks until I see how their energy looks after the quick turnaround from Baylor. I’ll look to bet this one live at the first media timeout.