KU's Gotta Lose Again This Year, Right?
Kenpom suggests KU has FIVE losses remaining. How is that even possible?
Scoopmeister’s note: Sorry about the lack of newsletter this week. I have a real job. One that I like quite a bit. Sometimes it will take priority or energy away from us together at #Scoopsmafia. I’ll try to prepare more ahead of time if I see it coming.
There was a tweet about Kansas basketball yesterday that grabbed my attention. Kenpom1 projects Kansas to finish Big 12 play with five losses. That's a lot of losing, with only a handful of games left.
With Kansas being 4-0, this means statistics predict the Jayhawks to go 9-5 the rest of the way in Big 12 play. The tweet led me to the question: Where and when do the five losses come? It feels like one too many losses, but is it? I asked a few people in the know to get their opinion, which helped inform the rest of this article.
The first suggestion that came my way was to examine KU's loss this year. It was a clear beatdown to a Tennessee team still playing well. Tennessee is the best rebounding team in the country and among the few with wings as long as KU's. This same mix of size and athleticism has given the Jayhawks trouble for the last few years.
A few teams jump out when looking at the Big 12 with size and speed. They’re TCU, Texas, and Oklahoma State. A quick rundown of the teams:
TCU: This team doesn't stop running. It has two big guards in Mike Miles and Damion Baugh, and two wings with size. Its center Eddie Lampkin is a certified big boy. The Frogs are No. 24 in offense rebounding %, too.
Texas: The Longhorns are running a lot more since Chris Beard left. They aren't the biggest team, but they're athletic 1-through-5.
Oklahoma State: We already saw the Cowboys give KU trouble, and we know Self struggles in Stillwater.
Bonus: Kansas State has size at the 3, 4 and 5 spots. But they are tiny at guard. The Wildcats are the 19th fastest team in the country since the start of conference play. It’s gonna be fun.
There comes a time in every KU season when the fanbase panics. Most of the time, it’s both unwarranted and understandable. Last year it was after the Jayhawks lost back-to-back games at Baylor and (gulp) TCU.
The panic will probably set in again sometime soon. My hunch was to key in on the February schedule. First, I looked at KU's win percentage by month since 2010, Self's worst month (not counting March) is JANUARY. THAT'S NOW. The results here are so close, it's not worth looking at one month over the other.
Let's Find the Losses
I want to acknowledge the Big 12 is so tough right now this will probably look foolish in a week. But looking at the schedule is also normal fan behavior, so I'm justifying it for myself.
KU's schedule these next few games is an absolute gauntlet. There is no break coming. Just look at the stretch outlined in red!
Still, Kenpom has KU as a favorite in every game this year until the last regular season against Texas. So a split against Texas is reasonable, especially if the Big 12 race is decided. I'll call the road game in Austin an L.
Kansas State would be the next obvious one, but Self seems to have his guys so fired up for big games against Top 10 teams2 that I'm not doing it. I refuse. Moving on.
I view TCU as KU's most challenging matchup this year. They have great scorers and size. The home game against TCU coming up following Tuesday's game at Kansas State is trappy. I'll call the matchup a season split as well.
Those are the two I'm comfortable suggesting. Of course, there will be an unexpected loss or two somewhere. Maybe in the four-game stretch pictured below.
Watching KU make it through one of best conferences in the last 20 years will be so fun and so stressful. There are some substantially different styles and matchups for the Jayhawks. Seeing how KU handles different team structures should help us figure out what teams the Jayhawks want on their side of the bracket in March.
Even though this is out of our control, it's fun to do as a fan. But so is asking this question: KU won't win every game... It can't.. right? Right?!
Kenpom is a great tool. It’s also incorrectly viewed as College Basketball God by some. It’s OK to have an opinion that differs from its rankings.
Assuming KState will be Top 10 comes Tuesday.
Vern, you're looking at this all wrong. It is clear that the kryptonite for this year's Kansas team is the color orange. Tennessee L and OSU close W prove (sometimes the Phog is too powerful). For last year's team, the kryptonite was the state of Texas. This year, it's the color orange. That means the losses are @OSU, both Texas games and both ISU games (if you squint hard enough the red+yellow makes orange). College basketball doesn't make sense. Embrace logical fallacy journalism.