Pro Money Eyes Kansas, and The Source Has a Theory
Pro Money Eyes Kansas, and The Source Has a Theory
Could there be a playbook against the Jayhawks?
I AM NOT RECOMMENDING ANY BETTING OR WAGERS. THESE ARE MY INTERPRETATIONS OF TRENDS I FIND INTERESTING. I CAN'T GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY OF THIS CONTENT OR MY INTERPRETATION OF IT. THIS IS NOT BETTING ADVICE. IF YOU CHOOSE TO PLACE ANY BETS, YOU DO SO AT YOUR OWN RISK.
Before The Bets
The Source fears Big 12 teams may have a playbook for the Jayhawks based on the last two games. He's not saying he knows this for sure. It's just a theory he's developing, and we should start to watch for it.
He thinks teams may let Jalen Wilson get his 30 points and focus on shutting everyone else down. If a team can do that, you're making Dajuan Harris, Kev McCullar, or KJ Adams beat you.12 Any of those can win a game for KU, but it's probably your best shot playing against the Jayhawks.
My one other note from The Source is about the quote below.
I asked for additional context. He thinks Self was referring to "everyone" and that the team didn't know the scouting report as a whole vs. TCU. I think this was more specific than The Source let on. Also, Self has been waiting to drop a line like that on the team.
Two Quick Thoughts from my end:
Look at Dajuan’s minutes the last four games: 35, 39, 43, 38. I asked after the TCU loss if he’s hurting, and the general answer I’ve gotten is that he’s just worn down from all the minutes. This leads to my main concern…
Baylor’s backcourt is good. The Bears have the No. 2 offense in the country, per Kenpom. A tired KU team playing against guards this good is a scary thought.
One advantage for KU is its length on the wing. Baylor is one of the best jump-shooting teams in the country, which KU’s size on the perimeter should limit.
The Bets
TODAY: Kansas Jayhawks AT Baylor Misses Jerome Tang Bears
Opening spread: Kansas a 1.5-point underdog
Current spread: KU a 2-point underdog (as of 10:18am CT)
DraftKings is reporting 68% of bettors and 80% of money wagered is on Kansas to cover the spread. (via VSiN)
Action Network is reporting 75% of bettors and 88% of money wagered is on Kansas to cover the spread. It also indicates “Pro Money” is on The Jayhawks.
My Take:
Pro money appears3 to be on the Jayhawks and Bill Self as an underdog, which isn't a shock. Pro bettors hunt for value, and Self off two losses screams value.
Jalen Wilson's over/under is at 20.5 points, so the over could be a play if you buy The Source's theory. The counterpoint is that KU will course-correct and get other guys involved with easy buckets early. Kevin McCullar under 10.5 also has my eye for now.
You and I both know this is a brutal turnaround for KU. Historically, the Jayhawks find a way to get it done. It appears The Pros think so, too.
This is worth a follow up. I may look into this later in the week when I have a bit more time to investigate.
I didn’t mention Gradey Dick for a reason. Dick is the best basketball player on the team, but his threat is mostly as a catch-and-shoot guy for right now. I’m referring to someone creating off the dribble in this theory.
The one curious thing about this line is that it jumped up to +3 for a quick moment right after it opened. Something happened to make the line jump, but it's steadily fallen since then.