The Pros are Betting Texas Tech but "The Source" Isn't So Sure

How "The Source" thinks Kansas will look to take down the Red Raiders

I AM NOT RECOMMENDING ANY BETTING OR WAGERS. THESE ARE MY INTERPRETATIONS OF TRENDS I FIND INTERESTING. I CAN'T GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY OF THIS CONTENT OR MY INTERPRETATION OF IT. THIS IS NOT BETTING ADVICE. IF YOU CHOOSE TO PLACE ANY BETS, YOU DO SO AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Game HEARING

The Source¹ is back with some takes on tonight’s game vs. Texas Tech. Here is a summary of HEARINGS on this matchup:

• KU will draw Tech into overloading one side of the ball. Then it should fire skip passes to its shooters Gradey Dick, Kevin McCullar and Jalen Wilson for open threes.

• Related note: this is McCullar’s first game back in Lubbock. His response to the atmosphere will be critical.

• Texas Tech has small guards. Look for the Jayhawks to get mismatches with their big wings to take a size advantage — on both sides of the ball.

• Tech’s bench isn’t a threat.

• Tech does have a threat in big man Daniel Batcho. The 6’11” sophomore is a top-tier shot blocker and rebounder. The source likes KU tonight if it can keep him off the glass.

(I had AI make digital art for “The Source”)

The Bets

Quickly, "Pro Bettors" or "Sharp Money" are respected bettors. When they bet, oddsmakers might change lines based on their wager. However, even these "Pros" are only right ~55% of the time. The margins are THAT slim.

To keep it simple, I look for two things when analyzing betting markets: 

1. Differences between the % of bets and % of money. The public should be a lot of little bets, while the “Pros” typically represent more of the money. In theory, the "Pros" are just SLIGHTLY more likely to be right.

2. How odds are moving, as mentioned above, can come from Sharp Money bets. 

TODAY: Kansas @ Texas Tech Already Peaked as a Program Raiders

Opening spread: KU favored by 3.5 points

Current spread: KU favored by 1.5 points (as of 6:23pm CT)

DraftKings is reporting 65% of bettors and 43% of money wagered is on Kansas to cover the spread. (via VSiN)

Action Network is reporting 49% of bettors and 21% of money wagered is on Kansas to cover the spread. It also indicates “Pro Money” is on Texas Tech. The sample size is small.

My Take:

The Pros like Texas Tech tonight. The line movement shows their preference, along with the betting splits listed above. The Source likes Kansas tonight, but The Source always likes Kansas.

It’s worth noting Texas Tech’s offense is more efficient than in previous years. Four of its last five games have gone over. The Jayhawks also played to the over in three of their last five. Tonight’s over/under opened at 138.5 and jumped to 141.

Resisting the -1.5 is tough. If you can manage to hold off, there may be a decent live betting opportunity. We’ve watched enough Bill Self basketball to have a feel once a game tips.²

1. If you’re new to The Hearings, welcome! The Source has broken down most games since the Mizzou matchup. The Source generally understands how KU will look to attack its opponents. At this point, I’m all in on The Source.

2. I’ve talked myself into this being an edge, and I’ll take any edge I can get.