The Source: KU Can't Get Distracted by The Greats

The greats are back in Allen Fieldhouse, but the team needs to stay focused to avoid a repeat disaster

I AM NOT RECOMMENDING ANY BETTING OR WAGERS. THESE ARE MY INTERPRETATIONS OF TRENDS I FIND INTERESTING. I CAN'T GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY OF THIS CONTENT OR MY INTERPRETATION OF IT. THIS IS NOT BETTING ADVICE. IF YOU CHOOSE TO PLACE ANY BETS, YOU DO SO AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Before The Bets

The impossible finally happened. The Source was WRONG for the first time all season. In case you forgot (I haven't), The Source was worried about KU vs. West Virginia. 

Look, The Source isn't going to be perfect. Neither is my analysis of betting markets. These posts are just a different way of previewing games. I'd pay more attention to The Source's breakdown of games than his predictions. He knows what he's talking about.

I also brought in college basketball expert and Action Network's @baruhbets to discuss Iowa State. 

First, a quick breakdown from The Source:  

• Iowa State has good shooters, a different offense from last year, and an elite rim protector.

• The key is simple: play better defense than the Oklahoma game. Don't let their shooters get open looks.

• The Source also made a point of remembering KU's loss on the 120-year celebration of Kansas basketball. He suggested the team was distracted by the outside activities. It was his main concern for the game today, which is a better sign than a matchup issue. 

  • Scoopmeister’s note: Roy Williams, Larry Brown, Jacque Vaughn, Ted Owens, Nick Collison, Kirk Hinrich, Darnell Valentine, Drew Gooden, and even Chris Teahan are just a few of the all-time greats who will be in Allen Fieldhouse today.

Here's BaruhBets, who has bet on Iowa State six times this season like a psychopath: 

• "Iowa State will do everything they can to force turnovers and get out in transition. Their defense is their offense. They are 1st in the country in turnover percentage." 

• "They will likely throw various man-to-man and zone looks at you, while even pressing at times. Rarely do they stay in one defense for an entire game."

• "Kansas has an advantage in defending spot-up situations, which make up a significant portion of Iowa State's offense"

• "The Cyclones need to get out and run, and they also aren’t that good of an offensive team. I’d be willing to bet they aren’t shooting 12-of-22 from three again."

• "There’s a reason this spread is 8. Otz is a great coach, and Iowa State is great as a dog because of how they play and their ability to force turnovers. But I wouldn’t be worried if Kansas plays the way it’s capable of"'

The Bets

TODAY: Iowa State Always Loses In Hilarious Fashion Cyclones @ Kansas

Opening spread: KU favored by 8 points

Current spread: KU favored by 7.5 points (FanDuel is offering -6.5 in Kansas as of 1:20PM)

DraftKings is reporting 28% of bettors and 23% of money wagered is on Kansas to cover the spread. (via VSiN)

Action Network is reporting 85% of bettors and 97% of money wagered is on Kansas to cover the spread. It also indicates “Pro Money” is on Iowa State. The sample size is small.

My Take:

These are unusually lopsided numbers. Action Network showing 97% of money on Iowa State, just screams too small of a sample size. DraftKings is probably closer to reality here.

It’s a strange line, so it may be worth watching for live betting action once you get a sense of the game. If the Cyclones are turning KU over, it’s a problem. If not, the Jayhawks should be OK.