The Source on KU-KState: Cut the Head Off the Snake

The plan for KU is clear, according to The Source

I AM NOT RECOMMENDING ANY BETTING OR WAGERS. THESE ARE MY INTERPRETATIONS OF TRENDS I FIND INTERESTING. I CAN'T GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY OF THIS CONTENT OR MY INTERPRETATION OF IT. THIS IS NOT BETTING ADVICE. IF YOU CHOOSE TO PLACE ANY BETS, YOU DO SO AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Before The Bets

The Source had a simple message of how he expects Kansas to defend Kansas State tonight: cut the head off the snake. In other words: focus on stopping Markquis Nowell and see how the Wildcats respond. 

• TL;DR: Nowell runs the show for Kansas State. 

  • Since the start of conference play, Nowell is FIFTH in the country in Poss% (per Kenpom.com). Poss% is a stat that measures how often a player ends a possession. Simply: it shows how often a player is used by a team.

  • In conference play, 27% of Kansas State's possessions have ended at the hands of Nowell (good or bad). For reference, Frank Mason ended 25.7% of KU's possessions in 2017. 

• Watch for Kansas State to run a lot of pick and roll at the top of the key. That's their most frequently run play this year.

• The Wildcats have Other Dudes. Keyontae Johnson gets a ton of freedom in their offense as well. Would expect Kevin McCullar to guard Johnson. It's his most important job tonight.

• I'm watching to see if Self throws a lot of bodies at Nowell or lets Dajuan Harris go head-to-head with him all game. Getting quality defensive minutes from Bobby Pettiford of Jo Yesufu could be big. 

The Bets

TODAY: Kansas AT Kansas State Enjoying Tang While It Can Wildcats

Opening spread: KU favored by 2.5 points

Current spread: KU favored by 1.5 points (as of 5:31pm CT)

DraftKings is reporting 69% of bettors and 65% of money wagered is on Kansas to cover the spread. (via VSiN)

Action Network is reporting 46% of bettors and 13% of money wagered is on Kansas to cover the spread. It also indicates “Pro Money” is on Kansas State.

My Take:

The pros appear to be taking Kansas State at home. I’m not surprised to see it. The Wildcats are coming off a loss, while the Jayhawks have narrowly escaped Big 12 play without a scratch. That’s a classic recipe for sharp money to take a narrow home underdog.

I’ll be watching for a live betting spot. It’s been a profitable strategy so far in conference play. I’ll look to strike if the Wildcats come out shooting hot and have a lead at the first under-16 timeout.

Then lets see if KU can cut the head off the snake.